关键词: 急性重度胰腺炎, C 反应蛋白, 降钙素原, 风险预测

Abstract:

explore the predictive value of procalcitonin Pthe severe acute pancreatitis ptregression and ROC curve were utilized to analysis the correlation between PCTand the risk of severe acute pancreatitis within 24 hours of onset. Results The mean value of PCT and CRP in the observation group was significantly higher than control groupObjective To explore the predictive value of procalcitonin （PCT） and C?reactive protein （CRP）in the severe acute pancreatitis （SAP）. Method A retrospective study in 68 cases of acute pancreatitis patients who accepted treatment in our hospital from Jan. 2013 to Dec. 2015 were conducted. All cases were divided into mild pancreatitis group （control group） and severe acute pancreatitis group （observation group） according to the 2013 edition of Chinese Acute Pancreatitis Diagnosis and Treatment Guideline. T?test，Logistic regression and ROC curve were utilized to analysis the correlation between PCT，CRP and the risk of severe acute pancreatitis within 24 hours of onset. Results The mean value of PCT and CRP in the observation group was significantly higher than control group（P< 0.001）. By logistic regression analysis，the OR values of PCT and CRP were 1.41，1.125 respectively. In both PCT and CRP，the confidence interval of the OR value of RP 95% was greater than one. Thus，both PCT and CRP were the risk factors for SAP and they could be combined to predict the risk of SAP. Furthermore，the ROC curves indicated that PCT was superior to CRP in sensitivity and accuracy for predicting the risk of SAP. Conclusion Early detection of serum PCT and CRP level could reflect the severity of AP patients，and PCT was more accurate and sensitive than CRP. Moreover，combination of PCT and CRP could predict the risk of SAP and provided valuable guidance for the SAP treatment.

Key words: severe acute pancreatitis, procalcitonin, C?reactive protein, risk prediction