关键词: 引流时间, 列线图, 心脏手术

Abstract: 【Abstract】 Objective To establish a nomogram to predict prolonged drainage time of postoperative cardiac, and get better clinical management. Methods Data on 152 consecutive patients who underwent open cardiac surgery in Sun Yat-sen memorial hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between January 2014, and January 2016. Data collect include the patient's general information, past medical history, perioperative related information and postoperative drainage time etc. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors associated with postoperative drainage time that then were incorporated into the nomogram. Results Univariate logistic regression found that gender, CPB time （cardiopulmonary bypass time）, smoking, white blood cell count, creatinine preoperatively, left atrial diameter, Left ventricular ejection fraction （EF） significant influence cardiac postoperative drainage time；Multivariate logistic regression showed that smoking history, preoperative creatinine, white blood cell count, CPB time, and PT-INR（Prothrombin time-International Normalized Ratio） were an independent prognostic factor, and were incorporated into nomogram. Nomogram initial concordance index （C-idex） 0.78. After 1 000 times of internal model validation, C-idex was 0.76. The sensitivity of nomogram prediction was 80.0% （95% CI, 95%-69.2%）, and the area under the curve of the ROC analysis was 0.78（95% CI，0.74-0.82）. Positive odds ratio（PLR）was 2.43，negative odds ratio（NLR）of 0.30. Conclusion Cardiac postoperative drainage time related to many factors, the prediction modelbased on the related factors can predict postoperative drainage time accurately.

Key words: Drainage time, Nomogram, Cardiac surgery