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岭南现代临床外科 ›› 2017, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (06): 645-648.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-976X.2017.06.004

• 论著与临床研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

晚期乳腺癌患者的ANZ生存预测模型的验证

邝钰雯 1 彭皓玮 1# 赵健丽 2 林潇 2 江骏荣 2 柴洁 2 汪颖 2 姚和瑞 2*   

  1. 1. 广州市执信中学 2. 中山大学孙逸仙纪念医院
  • 通讯作者: 姚和瑞
  • 基金资助:

    肿瘤相关巨噬细胞激活成纤维细胞调控乳腺癌细胞转移特性的分子机制研究;启动子DNA甲基化修饰的长链非编码RNA调控乳腺癌转移的研究;表观遗传异质性调控乳腺癌转移异质性的研究;肿瘤相关巨噬细胞激活成纤维细胞调控乳腺癌细胞转移特性的分子机制研究;表观遗传学调控对乳腺癌早期转移的预测作用及机制研究

A validation analysis of prognostic model of metastatic breast cancer

KUANG Yuwen1，PENG Haowei1，ZHAO Jianli2，LIN Xiao2，JIANG Junrong2，CHAI Jie2，WANG Ying2，YAO Herui2.   

  1. 1 Zhixin High School，Guangzhou 510080，China； 2 Breast Tumor Center，Sun Yat- sen Memorial Hospital， Sun Yat-sen University，Guangzhou 510120，China. #：Contributed equally.
  • Online:2017-12-20 Published:2017-12-20
  • Contact: YAO Herui

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摘要： 目的 验证晚期乳腺癌患者的生存预测ANZ模型。方法 收集本中心104例辅助治疗后出现复发或转移、拟接受一线治疗的晚期乳腺癌患者的临床和病理学资料，利用ANZ模型预测该部分患者的生存时间，分析该模型对中国晚期乳腺癌患者的生存预测的鉴别能力和准确性。结果ANZ模型对本中心104例晚期乳腺癌患者进行外验证的C-index为0.61（0.53，0.70），calibrationplot提示模型预测生存时间与实际生存时间的拟合度稍差。结论 ANZ模型对本中心辅助治疗后出现复发或转移、拟接受一线治疗的晚期乳腺癌患者的生存预测效能欠佳，可能不是一个适合中国患者的生存预测模型，未来需要建立一个基于中国患者人群、具有更全面建模因素的晚期乳腺癌生存预测模型。

关键词: 晚期乳腺癌, 总生存, 预测模型

Abstract:

 

Objective  Tovalidate the ANZ model，a prognosticmodel of metastatic breast cancer among the patients of our breast cancer tumor center.Methods  The data of 104 patients starting first-line treatmentfor metastatic breast cancer from Jan. 2002 to Dec. 2012 were collectedas a validation dataset for ANZ model. Results   We validate the ANZ model in 104 metastatic breast cancer patientsof our breast tumor center，C-index is 0.61（，），the calibration plot suggested that the accuracy of the predicted OS using the nomogram is unsatisfied in the validation cohort. Conclusion  ANZ model showed an inferior prognosticpower in the metastatic breast cancer patientsof our tumor center. A more accurate prognostic model trained by Chinese metastatic breast cancer patients is needed.

Objective  To validate the ANZ model，a prognostic model of metastatic breast cancer among the patients of our breast cancer tumor center. Methods  The data of 104 patients starting first-line treatment for metastatic breast cancer from Jan. 2002 to Dec. 2012 were collected as a validation dataset for ANZ model. Results   We validate the ANZ model in 104 metastatic breast cancer patients of our breast tumor center，the C-index is 0.61（0.53，0.70），and the calibration plot suggested that the accuracy of the predicted OS using the nomogram is unsatisfied in the validation cohort. Conclusion  ANZ model showed an inferior prognostic power in the metastatic breast cancer patients of our tumor center. A more accurate prognostic model trained by Chinese metastatic breast cancer patients is needed.

Key words: metastatic breast cancer, overall survival, prognostic model

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